Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
