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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference obstructed from the top if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.