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For a brief period, the former US president gave the impression to embrace a strong approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing statements of "significant consequences" in August if Putin continued blocking ceasefire negotiations, the former president eventually enacted considerable sanctions on the Russian biggest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This move seriously impacted Putin's ability to finance his aggression in the region.

However, with his recently unveiled detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, that was developed by American and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or European involvement, the former president has seemingly gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Aggression

This initiative would in practice reward Putin for invading Ukraine while placing the country's political freedom in peril. Despite strong statements that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the initiative in reality weaken that same independence. Seen as a Russian ideal would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump seems to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a basic border issue, implying giving Russia a portion of Ukraine's soil will please the president. Yet, Russia's invasion is not simply about dominating a damaged swath of economically weakened area in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to destroy it so it ceases to serves as an attractive standard for the Russia's population of the accountable government that Putin's increasing autocracy denies them.

Border Surrenders

Although keeping in place the presently divided regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would require Ukraine to give up the whole Donetsk province. In addition to benefiting Russia with land that its forces have been unable to capture in over a lengthy period of conflict, this concession would leave Ukraine's defenses dangerously weakened.

This region is the place of the nation's well-known "defensive line", the fortified protective structures that represent a key obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these positions, leaving Russian forces a open path to the capital if he subsequently opt to restart the conflict.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a step that would enable future fighting easier for Russia, Trump would force the nation to diminish the scale of its military from their existing large number personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Notably, the proposal imposes no equivalent restrictions on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's campaign to characterize the nation's democratically elected leadership as radicals, the proposal states: "Any radical ideology and actions must be condemned and prohibited." Seemingly to emphasize this point, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal places no requirement that Putin risk his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

To be sure, the proposal has the Russian Federation pledge not to "attack other states" and to "establish in regulation its stance of peaceful relations towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". But given that the Russian leadership has broken similar treaties in the past – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia promised to respect Ukraine's borders in return for giving up its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a restoration of occupied areas in the Donbas to Kyiv – why should anyone trust this commitment now?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on external protection assurances. Although the plan warns of a "strong coordinated defense action" in case the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the details range from vague to concerning. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine Nato membership but also prevent alliance nations from positioning troops on Ukraine's soil, thereby blocking the security presence, reportedly commanded by European powers, on which Ukraine had been depending to stop Putin from replenishing his reduced military, restocking, and attacking again.

International Response

An additional supplementary accord according to sources would offer the nation with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any future "significant, planned, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war threatening the peace and security of the allied countries." That suggests a armed reaction. But unlike a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best defense against renewed Russian aggression – the success of the parallel accord would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to act through arms to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not