‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Tightens India's LPG Availability.
The repercussions of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's kitchens.
As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy shipments through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of kitchen fuel are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases close completely.
Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in food service establishments.
"The state of affairs is alarming. LPG simply cannot be found," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most restaurants run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "A lot of restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the south. People are switching to solid fuels and electric cookers to keep their operations going."
Localized Effects
In a western metro, local news say up to a fifth of hospitality businesses are already operating at reduced capacity as cylinder availability tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their cylinder inventory have depleted with little backup. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no food items - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are skipping midday meals and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers report a spike in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.
Government Stance
Yet, the officials states there is no shortage.
India has more than 30 crore domestic LPG users and officials say cylinders are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the war in the Gulf impact energy markets.
About a majority of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic bottleneck now effectively closed by the hostilities.
The petroleum ministry says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a significant margin. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for vital industries such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".
"Some panic booking and hoarding has been triggered by misinformation. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.
Growing Panic
Now the anxiety is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of scooters outside a fuel station. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.
According to analysis from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.
India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around a significant portion of its crude oil imports - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.
Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.
Based on maritime intelligence and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.
Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern
The key weakness is kitchen fuel, analysts say.
India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.
Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.
In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be somewhat alleviated through alternative sourcing. Processed petroleum stocks remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."
What may be worsening the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.
An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.
"Distributors are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."
For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.
