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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation marked its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another state and seize its president – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.